Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, smarting from his costly miscalculation in appointing fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra as his adviser, continues to overplay his hand in a big gamble, putting his country at stake in a diplomatic dispute with Thailand. This time, he wants to elevate the spat to a confrontation.
After being put under the spotlight in Tokyo, Hun Sen went home like a bull in a china shop, so to speak, fuming with rage after being snubbed by Thailand's withdrawal of its ambassador and cancellation of a memorandum of understanding on oil reserves that had promised to serve as a cash cow for Hun Sen.
Seeking retaliation to regain lost ground, Hun Sen immediately summoned Thaksin to Phnom Penh to accept the advisory role - as if the damage done so far was not enough to create a crisis with his neighbour.
Of course, the two must have conversed on the phone on how to get out of this embarrassing situation. It was a big blow for their egos and a major setback for Thaksin and his cronies who are fighting for his return to Thailand. Thaksin's first advice, obviously, was that Hun Sen should press ahead and not stand down.
The big bully in Phnom Penh has enjoyed getting his own way for too long. He has hurled various insults at Thailand, without much response - more so with his view towards Prime Minister Abhisit. In Hun Sen's view, partly shaped by Thaksin, he must assume that the Thai leader is a greenhorn with no stomach for an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation.
Certainly the young politician is not up to Hun Sen's thuggish meanness. Endurance over 24 years in power in Cambodia should be a warning that Hun should not to be taken lightly. With this in mind, Hun Sen has recklessly stepped beyond the diplomatic fine line by honouring an apprentice of tyranny from Thailand with a high position in Cambodia.
The fugitive will perform his first duty as Hun Sen's guru by giving a lecture on economic affairs to about 300 Cambodian experts and technocrats; he'll be telling them how to run their country's economy. He must think that, with his massive wealth, no Cambodian is as smart at making money as he is.
Abhisit today presides over the Cabinet meeting to cancel the MOU on oil drilling in the Gulf of Thailand. He could discuss more counter-measures now that Hun Sen has upped the ante with a challenge that the joint border could be closed, if Thailand wants.
Hun Sen has also challenged Abhisit to call for a snap election to prove his popularity over Thaksin, the patron of the Pheu Thai Party, which is perceived as a potential winner. Well, this was too much. But Hun Sen ignores diplomatic protocol and simple civility.
From barbs and crudeness, Hun Sen is just a step away from open sabre-rattling. At least he saw some sense the other day by instructing his deputy supreme commander to talk to the Thai Army commanding officer on the border that he wants to avoid armed conflict of any kind. It was different from the previous flexing of muscles that Cambodian soldiers were far superior in terms of combat.
How far is Hun Sen prepared to go in the ongoing dispute? Cambodians on the border are worried that a border closure would cause more than just discomfort. Casinos in Poipet would be hard hit without gamblers from Thailand, their major source of income.
By now, Cambodia's people and opposition politicians should feel offended by the entire ruckus. Having a Thai criminal anointed by the king is an insult to Cambodian royalty. What's more? Thaksin just made a grave remark in relation to the Thai monarchy in Timesonline, further causing more anger among Thais towards the fugitive.
Thaksin immediately responded on Twitter, blaming Times for distorting his comments. This is not news. Thaksin always blames other people for anything that goes wrong, and never accepts any responsibility for damage caused as a result of his loose tongue.
This is not the first time Thaksin has broken the taboo regarding the country's revered institution. The latest blatant act of lese majeste will worsen his predicament, so much that he could become the most hated man in Thailand's recent political history.
Not only that, the red shirts and Pheu Thai members will find it difficult to defend their big boss, whose relationship with the bully in Cambodia has seen him branded as a traitor nationwide. Their next campaign to dislodge Abhisit from power is expected to backfire in the face of broad-based public resentment.
The two friends with vested interests will struggle hard to remain in a good light. They have many things in common, including a streak of tyranny, a penchant for graft, a super-ego, and bottomless arrogance and ambition, among other cravings.
How their high-stakes gamble will end up eventually, is not very hard to guess.
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